Circle of Competence: What You Know That Just Ain't So

Antonie Walker scored more than 15,000 points across 13 seasons in the NBA.

He was named an All-Star thrice ('98, '02 & '03) and won a championship ('06). His total career earnings: a staggering $108M.

Shortly after retirement, Walker filed for bankruptcy.

"A friend in Chicago created a real estate company, and I became a part of it.. We got caught in the [crash] of 2007-2008 and borrowed a lot of money through banks. I was the personal guarantor."

One single, highly-leveraged venture outside of his area of expertise ultimately undid a decade of sweat and sacrifice.

The key takeaway is being acutely aware of when you're out of your depth, as you won't know what you don't know.

Walker now spends part of his time on improving financial literacy among pro-athletes.

“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so. “ – Mark Twain

Blindspots

Understanding where your knowledge is lacking will illuminate where you’re most vulnerable.

Bitcoin is conceptually challenging to understand because it requires an interdisciplinary approach- software, hardware, economics, game theory, cryptography, monetary policy, networks, thermodynamics, etc

Assessing it solely through a narrow lense of expertise means failing to see the wider system.

The Circle of (In)Competence

Bitcoin is the combination of an antifragile peer-to-peer digital network and a provably-finite bearer asset.

There is no possible way to understand the significance of Bitcoin if you're ignorant to half of the equation.

"you have to figure out what your own are. If you play games where other people have the aptitudes and you don’t, you’re going to lose."

"Believe me, man is capable of somehow creating more Bitcoin... They tell you there are rules and they can't do it. Don't believe them. When there is enough incentive, bad things will happen." -also Charlie Munger

The Solution: Humility

Humility is our learning muscle. It gives us permission to publicly admit failure. We're then free to explore why and hopefully update our perspective.

Reacting defensively to accurate feedback or evidence creates a barrier for growth.

Further Reading

Understanding your Circle of Competence

As we can learn from Warren Buffett, avoiding problems is easier than solving them.